We are a research group at UCL’s Centre for Artificial Intelligence.
Our research expertise includes:
We also work on applications related to social/environmental sustainability, climate and nuclear fusion.
If you are interested in joining the team, please check out our openings.
In recent years, machine learning has established itself as a powerful tool for high-resolution weather forecasting. While most current machine learning models focus on deterministic forecasts, accurately capturing the uncertainty in the chaotic weather system calls for probabilistic modeling. We propose a probabilistic weather forecasting model called Graph-EFM, combining a flexible latent-variable formulation with the successful graph-based forecasting framework. The use of a hierarchical graph construction allows for efficient sampling of spatially coherent forecasts. Requiring only a single forward pass per time step, Graph-EFM allows for fast generation of arbitrarily large ensembles. We experiment with the model on both global and limited area forecasting. Ensemble forecasts from Graph-EFM achieve equivalent or lower errors than comparable deterministic models, with the added benefit of accurately capturing forecast uncertainty.
Global convolutions have shown increasing promise as powerful general-purpose sequence models. However, training long convolutions is challenging, and kernel parameterizations must be able to learn long-range dependencies without overfitting. This work introduces reparameterized multi-resolution convolutions (MRConv), a novel approach to parameterizing global convolutional kernels for long-sequence modelling. By leveraging multi-resolution convolutions, incorporating structural reparameterization and introducing learnable kernel decay, MRConv learns expressive long-range kernels that perform well across various data modalities. Our experiments demonstrate state-of-the-art performance on the Long Range Arena, Sequential CIFAR, and Speech Commands tasks among convolution models and linear-time transformers. Moreover, we report improved performance on ImageNet classification by replacing 2D convolutions with 1D MRConv layers.